Recently, the U.S. stock market has experienced a strong upward trend, with major indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index repeatedly hitting new highs. In stark contrast, the price of Bitcoin has been stuck in a stalemate, continuing to hover around the $103,000 mark. This divergence in trends has sparked heated discussions in the market: can Bitcoin break through the consolidation zone and continue to rise?

==================================
💎
💎
==================================
From the perspective of market liquidity, the current funds exhibit a clear "seesaw effect". Stimulated by the expectations of macroeconomic recovery and favorable policies, a large amount of capital has flowed into traditional financial markets, with US stocks becoming the main gathering place for funds. Limited market liquidity makes it difficult to support a simultaneous rise of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum; their trends frequently diverge, often resulting in one side consolidating while the other experiences mixed fluctuations. Spot ETF data also confirms this trend, as the buying volume of Bitcoin spot ETFs has nearly halved in the past two weeks compared to the previous period, indicating a significant weakening of the momentum for funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market.
==================================
💎
💎
==================================
在资产配置层面,对于美国投资者而言,投资决策存在优先级差异。 当比特币与美stock 同时处于低位时,基于美股市场更成熟的监管体系、更高的流动性以及丰富的投资工具,投资者往往优先选择抄底美stock,待美stock 仓位布局完成后,才会将目光转向比比特币 ETF 及其他加密货币资产。 It is worth noting that the U.S. stock market has approached the resistance level of 关键 resistance level —— Trump takes office (陳上年时期的历史高点。 若美stock 能成功突破这一重要关口,延续上涨态势,市场风险偏好有望进一步提升,这或许会为比特币带来新的上涨契机,使其价格有机会冲击 10.5 万 - 10.6 万美元,甚至更高水平。 不过,这一乐观预期的实现,很難程度上依赖于未来策略环境的稳定,特别是特朗普可能推行的经济、金融策略,将对市场产生重要影响。
==================================
💎
💎
==================================
Focusing again on on-chain data, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges continues to flow out, forming a clear "negative inventory" trend. This phenomenon indicates that a large number of institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals are buying Bitcoin and quickly transferring their assets to cold wallets for storage, demonstrating their strong confidence in the long-term trend of the market, with no intention of selling their holdings in the short term. This change in position structure provides a certain support base for Bitcoin's subsequent rise.
==================================
💎
💎
==================================
Overall, the future trend of Bitcoin still has many uncertainties. The performance of the US stock market, changes in liquidity, adjustments in macro policies, and the development of the cryptocurrency market itself will all be key variables affecting the price of Bitcoin. While seizing market opportunities, it is essential to closely monitor the dynamic changes of the aforementioned factors and reasonably control investment risks.