Glassnode Alert: Bitcoin is in a Sensitive Zone – New Investors are About to 'Give Up' or Bounce Back Strongly

In a recent post on X, Glassnode discussed how short term price movements are often determined by the reactions of top buyers to dips after ATH. When prices fall, these holders quickly incur losses and may easily make panic moves. Bitcoin is currently in such a phase, with a significant supply having a base price between the latest spot price and $120,000, as the chart below shows.

The indicator on the chart is Cost Basis Distribution (, as the name suggests, informs us of the amount of BTC supply exchanged at different price levels. From the data of the indicator, it is clear that investors have gradually accumulated a dense supply group below $120,000 as this asset has traded within this range since the beginning of July. The recent fall in Bitcoin prices has naturally caused these investors to incur losses, so the question arises: how have these holders reacted? One metric that may help clarify this issue is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). This metric compares the profit and loss levels that all investors are experiencing on the network. When the SOPR value is greater than 1, it means that the average holder is selling their coins for profit. On the other hand, a value below the threshold indicates that profit-taking activity is dominant on the network. In the current discussion, what is noteworthy is not the SOPR of the entire market, but that of a specific segment: the top buyers. These are the investors who have participated in the cryptocurrency market over the past three months. Below is the chart shared by Glassnode showing the SOPR trend of Bitcoin for the age group of these investors:

As can be seen in the chart above, the SOPR of Bitcoin has fallen in all three time frames from 1 day to 1 week, from 1 week to 1 month, and from 1 month to 3 months after the price decreased. The indicator currently fluctuates between 0.96 and 1.01 for these groups, indicating that these investors have begun to sell at a slight loss. Glassnode notes: "If buying pressure increases, a local bottom often forms when this group capitulates, usually when SOPR falls below ~0.9." However, currently, it seems that Bitcoin does not need to wait for this capitulation signal as its price has recovered over the past day.