Today the market fell a bit due to uncertainty and the meeting with Old Powell, continuing the tradition of falling during meetings. But it feels like the market is very calm now, and many people are actually getting excited because the bearish traders can finally breathe a sigh of relief. To be honest, this round of the bull run feels quite strange to me; since BTC returned to above 100,000, many people around me don't really want it to continue rising, but rather hope it will fall, ideally having another major pullback like in April.

Maybe in the past two years, the leeks have been tortured and scared by the dealer, the explosion from March to May last year, the torture from June to October, the excitement from November to December, and the loss from January to April, many people have become more and more cautious, and they dare not do it in the long term, and they are unwilling to chase hot topics. The market seems to have slowly formed a consensus, looking forward to BTC sideways and looking forward to the advent of the cottage season, but many people judge that it will not rise, so in the process of this round of BTC rising, many friends around me have reduced their positions, and 70% of the bottom chips bought at the bottom of April have chosen to sell directly, and some people have chosen to cut meat when the bottom rebounds.
If there are really only two rate cuts this year, the cycle of the bull run may really be prolonged, making the arrival of the altcoin season even harder to predict. However, this does not prevent the market makers from designing scripts. Compared to US stocks and index funds, the candlestick charts in the crypto market are relatively easier to manipulate. As long as there is enough capital and chips, it is easy to grasp the sentiment of retail investors in the market, because this market indeed belongs to a gray area, drifting outside the traditional financial regulatory rules. The bull run of 2021 was still a game between institutions, but now it has turned into a battle between Wall Street and the Trump consortium.
This round of altcoin market is destined to be very difficult, bookmakers like to cultivate retail investors to carve the boat for the sword thinking, they successfully predicted the prediction of most retail investors, it is undeniable that the retail investors in the market are very accustomed to finding rules, we are used to using last year's market cycle to infer this year's trend, we are used to using the experience of the last round of bull market to judge the rise and fall of this round. But after entering the 25-year bull market range, Lao Leek found that these patterns became more and more elusive. In addition to Trump's special ability to make trouble, the market of altcoins this year is indeed simple and ambiguous. From the sharp drop of altcoins without warning on February 3 to the two-month decline of ETH, with a bull market decline of up to 66%, and the price of 90% of altcoins falling back into the 22-year bear market range, I believe that 90% of old leeks could not predict this situation.
At the end of last year, my trading plan mentioned that I was considering exiting a portion of my holdings around April to May. However, after finishing May, aside from BTC reaching the expected price level, none of the other currencies met my expectations. We cannot change the market, but for most people, this is a warning signal that needs to be heeded.
Reviewing this year's market, false breakouts and false breakdowns are very common in the 1-hour and 4-hour candlestick charts. On the daily and weekly charts, the distortion rate of many commonly used indicators is relatively high, and the main force's operations can be described in four words: unexpected.
As May comes to a close, if you have time, let's chat in the comments about how the market will move next. If BTC experiences a sharp fall, what will happen to the altcoins in our hands?
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