Crypto Assets Market Weekly Review and Outlook

Market Performance of BTC and ETH

This week, the Crypto Assets market has been highly volatile. Bitcoin saw a significant drop on Monday due to the decline in the global market, but with the release of macro data on Tuesday, market sentiment improved, and the price of Bitcoin rebounded. Ethereum also experienced a sharp decline at the beginning of the week due to the market crash, and a series of liquidation events further exacerbated the drop. Although there was a subsequent rebound, the strength was relatively weak.

Important Event Review

1. Global market crash raises concerns about economic recession

On Monday, the Japanese stock market plummeted and triggered a circuit breaker, followed by a decline in all three major U.S. stock indices. The market reacted strongly to the U.S. employment data falling short of expectations, raising concerns about an economic recession, leading to risk-averse operations and panic selling. However, as other macro data was gradually released, the market began to stabilize and rebound.

2. The U.S. economic data is improving

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. reached 51.4 in July, exceeding expectations; the number of initial jobless claims dropped to 233,000 in early August. These data have alleviated market concerns about an economic recession to some extent, driving the market to gradually warm up.

3. Geopolitical tensions

The uncertainty in the Middle East is increasing, putting pressure on global markets. After a senior Hamas official was attacked in Iran last week, Iran threatened to retaliate against Israel. Although no action has yet been taken, the regional situation remains tense.

4. The Democratic Party presidential candidate in the United States has been determined.

   After Biden announced he would not run for re-election, the Democratic Party nominated current Vice President Harris as the presidential candidate. Harris has had preliminary contacts with executives in the Crypto Assets industry, and although she has not made a clear statement, the market has developed new expectations for the Democratic Party's future Crypto Assets policy.

Altcoin Market Overview

This week, the market fear index dropped to 9.2%, a significant decrease from last week's 12%, still in the extreme fear range. This change in sentiment is mainly due to the U.S. employment data coming in far below expectations, raising concerns about a recession, which led to a significant market decline on Monday, with Altcoins generally dropping more than 20%. As other macro data was released, recession fears eased somewhat, and the market began to rebound. However, the rebound of most tokens was not as strong as that of the overall market, reflecting that investors remain cautious and have a wait-and-see attitude towards Altcoins.

The tokens on the gainers list are distributed across multiple sectors, including DEX, Depin, L1s, wallets, and privacy, without showing obvious sector concentration characteristics. Meme coins experienced particularly severe declines this Monday, with projects generally falling over 30%. Although there was a rebound on Tuesday that was stronger than other sectors, the gains of meme coins were not particularly outstanding. It is noteworthy that the update cycle for meme themes has accelerated, showing vitality but also exposing their instability, which may affect the confidence of long-term investors.

Social Media Trends and Topic Tracking

The most attention on social media is focused on the L1s track, but the related tokens are fluctuating inconsistently. Some tokens have rebounded after a significant drop, but if the rebound strength is weaker than the overall market and there are no special events affecting it, it may reflect weak underlying funding power.

According to the weekly return rate statistics, the Payment sector performed the best, while the RWA sector performed the worst. The Payment sector is dominated by XRP, which rebounded strongly due to the favorable outcome of the Ripple lawsuit, driving the entire sector. The RWA sector, affected by expectations of a U.S. economic recession, had the smallest rebound and performed relatively poorly.

Important Events Preview for Next Week

• August 13: FireNow Asia Web 3.0 Institutional Summit
• August 14: US July CPI year-on-year announced; Istanbul Blockchain Week 2024
• August 15: US July Retail Sales Month-on-Month Released
• August 16: OnChain Summit; ETHShenzhen 2024 Summit and Hackathon

Market Outlook for Next Week

1. Bitcoin is expected to continue to fluctuate widely, and investors should remain cautious, but can pay attention to rebound opportunities.
2. Ethereum spot ETF funds continue to flow in, and there may be short-term opportunities for bottom fishing, but long-term risks remain. It is expected to fluctuate in sync with Bitcoin, and investors should be cautious about being bullish.
3. Altcoins are expected to rebound, but the increase may be limited. Investors should maintain a cautious attitude and closely monitor market changes.