Macroeconomic pressures and weak capital resonate, the crypto market enters a defensive consolidation stage

The current crypto market is facing multiple pressures and has entered a defensive consolidation phase. This is mainly reflected in:

1. The uncertainty of the macro environment has increased, suppressing risk appetite. The delay in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, coupled with rising tariffs and geopolitical risks, has dampened market risk appetite.

2. Funding momentum has marginally improved but with structural differentiation. ETF capital inflow has turned into net outflow, the issuance of stablecoins has increased moderately, and the premium of USDT in the over-the-counter market has fallen below 100%, reflecting a cautious attitude towards funds.

3. Major coins show BTC fluctuating under pressure and ETH weakly building a bottom pattern. BTC remains relatively strong but its upward momentum has weakened, while ETH shows signs of bottoming but is still relatively weak compared to BTC.

4. The liquidity of the small-cap token market is exhausted, and risks continue to be released. TOTAL2 and TVL are declining in sync, and the market share of OTHERS has broken downwards, indicating that the market is in a risk release period.

In this context, it is recommended to maintain a defensive position allocation, closely monitor the strength and weakness turning points of ETH and the rhythm of capital inflow, and wait for the opportunity to position in high β assets.

Macro and Market Environment Analysis

1. Inflation concerns caused by tariffs may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin prices.

2. The appreciation of the yen may lead to short-term corrections in Bitcoin due to fluctuations in the global market.

3. If Trump's related encryption policies fail to materialize, Bitcoin may face adjustment risks.

Capital Flow and Mainstream Coin Market Structure

1. Capital Flow:

   • ETF funds: This week there was a net outflow of 697 million dollars.
   • Stablecoins: This week issued 2.3 billion, with an average daily issuance of 321 million, and the issuance level is at a relatively high position.
   • OTC premium: The premium for stablecoins continues to decline, falling below 100%.

2. Bitcoin ( BTC ):

   • Technical aspect: Maintain the oscillating upward range
   • On-chain chips: Concentration of chips over $103,000 has increased.

3. Ethereum ( ETH ):

   • Relative to BTC, performance is weaker, ETH/BTC ratio remains volatile.
   • On-chain data: The increase in active addresses may indicate the completion of a phase of bottoming.

Review of the Macroeconomic Situation

1. U.S. Debt and Fiscal Deficit:

   • The debt scale is 36 trillion dollars, with interest expenses of 880 billion dollars.
   • An estimated additional 30 trillion deficit over the next 10 years
   • Moody's downgraded the United States rating from AAA to Aa1, causing concerns in the market (.
   • High debt or weakening long-term confidence in the dollar drives investors to safe-haven assets like Bitcoin.

2. Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations:

   • The market expects an increased probability of interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025.
   • A 1% interest rate cut could save the United States over $100 billion in interest expenses.
   • Interest rate cuts will increase liquidity, which is beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.

3. Dollar Trend:

   • The US dollar weakened in May, but it is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year.
   • The US dollar and Bitcoin are negatively correlated; a weaker dollar is beneficial for Bitcoin's long-term performance.

![Market Observation Weekly Report【6.3 - 6.7】: Macroeconomic Pressure and Weak Liquidity Resonance, Market Enters Defensive Phase])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-bc7cfc4490779f0fa6593d75d4e48250.webp(

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On-chain data analysis

1. Stablecoin capital flow:

   • This week, an additional 1.005 billion has been issued, a month-on-month increase of +82%.
   • Daily average issuance increases by 143 million, which is in a moderate recovery phase.
   • Reflecting that the trend of market capital inflow has warmed up, but has not fully strengthened.

2. ETF Fund Flow:

   • This week, there was a net outflow of $697 million, marking the first significant withdrawal in recent times.
   • Institutional investors are becoming cautious about BTC in the short term.
   • Be wary of short-term adjustment or consolidation risks.

3. Off-exchange premium:

   • The premium rates of USDT and USDC have both fallen below 100%, entering the discount zone.
   • Reflects that the current capital inflow momentum is relatively weak, and investor risk appetite is declining.
   • The overall market is inclined to be conservative, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

4. Institutional Purchase:

   • MicroStrategy's recent buying intensity has significantly slowed down.
   • Bought 4020 BTC on May 26, increased by only 705 on June 2.
   • Indicate a gradual slowdown in the pace of building positions in the absence of clear upward catalysts.

5. Short-term and long-term holders:

   • Long-term holders' supply reached a new high in nearly six months, reaching about 14.4 million BTC.
   • The supply of short-term holders has declined since the beginning of the year, with a slight recent rebound.
   • Reflects the increased confidence of long-term funds, but the short-term trading activity has also risen.

Overall, the current market is in a consolidation phase, with poor performance in terms of capital and sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the buying strength of institutions and the performance of small-cap tokens to assess whether market sentiment is improving. In the short term, the market may continue to rebound, but risks of adjustment should still be monitored.

![Market Observation Weekly Report【6.3 - 6.7】: Macroeconomic Pressure and Weak Liquidity Resonance, Market Enters Defensive Phase])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b9c7aaa1a51114b13cc27c4557e3d4d0.webp(

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![Market Observation Weekly Report【6.3 - 6.7】: Macroeconomic Pressure and Weak Liquidity Resonance, Market Enters Defensive Phase])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-66a56343000fc4cb242aa512a9cfceff.webp(

![Market Observation Weekly Report 【6.3 - 6.7】: Macroeconomic Pressure and Weak Liquidity Resonance, Market Enters Defensive Stage])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-8ab11d338f615ec39edadfe39bc72722.webp(

![Market Observation Weekly Report【6.3 - 6.7】: Macroeconomic Pressure and Liquidity Weakness Resonance, Market Enters Defensive Stage])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7776561bd5afee593de75b0cc53d73a5.webp(