The Nikkei average's forecast range for this week is between 41,000 yen and 42,500 yen | This week's market outlook | Moneyクリ MoneyForward Securities' investment information and media useful for money.

Expectation of Following Highs After the Nikkei Average Hits Record Highs

The TOPIX has already reached the 3000 point range, so it was seen as only a matter of time before the Nikkei average would update its record high. However, in the overnight trading on the early morning of the 9th Japan time, the Nikkei futures ended at 42,290 yen, which is 470 yen higher than the previous day's settlement price. It seems that we will see a record high update for the Nikkei average in the Tokyo market after the three-day holiday.

This week is essentially the Obon holiday. With fewer market participants, the Tokyo market is likely to have a strong summer vacation atmosphere. Although the earnings announcements have been completed, and there is an undeniable sense of a lack of materials, it is not uncommon for unexpected rises to occur in the midst of material difficulties and thin trading. Therefore, after the Nikkei average updates its highest value, it will be interesting to see how much further it can chase those highs.

However, as stated in the strategy report (August 6th, "The Nikkei average of 40,000 is somewhat overbought from a fundamentals perspective; an improvement in performance momentum is necessary for further gains"), the current stock prices are somewhat overbought from the perspective of fundamentals such as earnings. With the record of continuous net buying by foreigners also having ended, I consider the main scenario to be that after the sense of achievement from the Nikkei average reaching a new high, it will be pressured by profit-taking sales.

Focus on semiconductor-related stocks influenced by CPI and NVIDIA

Amid material difficulties, the focus is undoubtedly on the U.S. CPI. The previous result from June showed a month-on-month increase of +0.3%, significantly exceeding the previous month's +0.1%. Year-on-year, it rose by +2.7%, a substantial increase from May's +2.4%. The unexpected rise was mainly due to a surge in energy prices, but the core also increased by +0.2% month-on-month and +2.9% year-on-year, reflecting a higher rate of increase compared to the previous month.

If the July CPI announced on the 12th results in a strong figure, the view that the Fed will find it difficult to cut interest rates is likely to strengthen. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index shows that the Purchasing Price Index for the services industry is at 69.9, the highest since October 2022 (70.7), raising concerns about a resurgence of inflation, making the July CPI more closely watched than ever.

The Financial Times (FT) reported on the 8th that the U.S. government has begun issuing permits necessary for the export of the artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor model "H20" from U.S. semiconductor giant NVIDIA [NVDA] to the Chinese market.

NVIDIA's [NVDA] stock price has seen a weekly increase of over 5%. It has risen for 11 consecutive weeks since the week of May 26-30, when it announced its earnings for the February-April 2025 quarter. This matches the weekly consecutive rise record set from early January to late March 2024, but it seems likely to break this consecutive rise record due to this FT news. I want to pay attention to whether Japanese semiconductor-related stocks will also rise.

Whether the US-Russia summit will lead to a breakthrough in the situation is uncertain.

Another major event is the U.S.-Russia summit, which is said to be held on the 15th in Alaska. This will be the first in-person meeting between the U.S. and Russian leaders since former U.S. President Biden and President Putin met in Geneva, Switzerland, in June 2021, marking a gap of 4 years and 2 months. It will undoubtedly be a significant milestone as it is the first direct dialogue between the top leaders of the U.S. and Russia since the start of Russia's invasion. However, while Trump has explicitly stated that he is considering "the return or exchange of some territories," Ukrainian President Zelensky has rejected any territorial concessions, making it frankly difficult to see whether the U.S.-Russia summit will lead to a breakthrough in the situation.

The expected range is set at 41,000 yen to 42,500 yen.