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Jefferies predicts that the US CPI in July may be lower than market expectations, with downside risks.
[Block Rhythm] On August 12, most analysts expect the U.S. core CPI for July to rise by 0.3%, while Jefferies Group anticipates 0.246%, which seems somewhat unusual. Jefferies stated that they expect prices for furniture, clothing, and entertainment items in July not to continue rising; despite tariff pressures, used car prices have remained largely stable, although seasonal adjustments may reflect a slight decline. Meanwhile, Jefferies expects the overall CPI to rise by 0.172%, lower than the market expectation of 0.2%. Considering that the data will be rounded, this number appears not to differ much, but Jefferies believes that the CPI report may have downside risks. Airfares remain an unstable factor, and if economy class ticket prices remain unchanged, seasonal adjustments may still lead to a 2.5% increase in airfare prices. If this does not occur, the overall CPI growth rate for July may drop to 0.1%.