The United States is about to announce the July Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) data, with market expectations that the overall inflation rate may slightly rise to 2.8%, and the core CPI could reach a 5-month high of 3.1%. This rising trend is mainly driven by the impact of tariffs on commodity prices.

Despite the rise in inflation, financial markets still maintain high expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of over 95% for a 25 basis point cut. However, there is division within the Federal Reserve: dovish members emphasize the weakness in the labor market, while hawkish members express concerns about the persistence of inflation.

The July CPI data will become an important indicator for assessing the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy on consumers. It is expected that the tariffs will directly lead to a month-on-month increase of about 0.12 percentage points in core CPI, but the digestion of corporate inventory may weaken the sustainability of this effect.

The market is sensitive to CPI data. If the month-on-month increase in core CPI exceeds 0.4%, it may trigger a sharp decline in the stock market; if it is below 0.25%, it may boost risk assets.

In the long term, Goldman Sachs predicts that the core CPI may fall to 2.5% by the end of the year. However, if inflation in the services sector accelerates, it could strengthen expectations for interest rate hikes.

Overall, the CPI data for July may reinforce the economic pattern of "mild inflation + weak employment," making a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September still a basic expectation. However, if the data significantly exceeds expectations, it may exacerbate divisions among decision-makers, adding uncertainty to the future direction of monetary policy.