#美联储政策与通胀数据# Looking back, the Fed's policies and inflation data have always affected the market's nerves. This time, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching historic highs, I am reminded of the days following the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, the market was also jubilant due to expectations of interest rate cuts, but what followed was a difficult recovery that lasted several years.

Today, the expectation of a 90% rate cut seems to be replaying the script of previous years. The yield on the two-year Treasury bond has dropped by 4 basis points, and the dollar has weakened, all of which indicate the possibility of a policy shift. However, the core inflation rate has risen to a year-to-date high, adding a touch of drama to this play.

History tells us that market sentiment often moves faster and more violently than the actual situation. Some of the investors who bet on low interest rates back then ended up laughing all the way to the bank, while others faced disastrous failures. Today's AI boom and strong earnings reports are supporting this wave of growth, but we must not forget that cycles always shift unexpectedly.

Be cautiously optimistic, young people. The market is like a big river, sometimes calm, sometimes turbulent. While the current uptrend is certainly exciting, don't forget the potential undercurrents in the future. Staying vigilant and managing risks is the only way to navigate safely through this river.