Recently, discussions about whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September have become increasingly heated. As an economic observer, I would like to share some personal insights on this topic.

Historically, the Federal Reserve has been known for its independence, but the current economic situation is testing this tradition. Major economies around the world are generally adopting a rate-cutting strategy, and a significant interest rate differential has emerged between the US dollar and the euro, which undoubtedly puts pressure on the Federal Reserve.

From a market perspective, as long as the inflation rate remains within a controllable range, maintaining a moderate real interest rate seems to have become the norm. However, we cannot ignore the impact of policy measures, especially the effects of fiscal stimulus and trade policies on the economy.

Currently, the United States has reached preliminary agreements with several major economies, which has alleviated supply pressure to some extent. At the same time, the temporary trade agreement with China has also been extended. These factors create favorable conditions for potential interest rate cut decisions.

Market expectations have begun to lean towards interest rate cuts, and the policy environment provides space for this. If the economic data in the coming months meets or exceeds expectations, we are likely to see the Federal Reserve take action.

In fact, after the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) data was released in July, the expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in September had already taken shape. The latest released Producer Price Index ( PPI ) data exceeded expectations, further increasing the likelihood of a rate cut.

However, the final decision still depends on the weighing of multiple factors. The Federal Reserve needs to find a balance between economic stability, inflation control, and policy independence. Regardless of the outcome, this will be an important moment to test the Federal Reserve's decision-making ability and economic insight.