The upcoming Powell speech is expected to be a carefully choreographed performance of policy balance. He is expected to take a cautious stance, seeking a balance between inflation control and economic rise, while maintaining the flexibility of policies.

The core of the speech is likely to revolve around "data dependency". Powell may emphasize that the Federal Reserve will closely monitor various economic indicators during the decision-making process, rather than pre-committing to a specific policy path. This approach allows the Federal Reserve to flexibly adjust its stance based on the latest economic data.

Regarding interest rate cut expectations, Powell may take a neutral stance. He may neither clearly hint at a rate cut in September nor completely deny the possibility. This ambiguous position is aimed at avoiding excessive market reactions, whether optimistic or pessimistic.

Investors should be prepared for potential market fluctuations after the speech. At the same time, they should closely monitor Powell's assessment of the economic outlook and any potential adjustments to the policy framework. These details may provide important clues for future policy direction.

However, the key factor that will truly determine the direction of the Fed's policy in September will be the upcoming employment and inflation data for August. This data will provide a more direct basis for the Fed's decision-making.

Overall, Powell's speech aims to retain the greatest decision-making space for the September monetary policy meeting. This strategy reflects the uncertainty of the current economic environment and the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in formulating policy.