According to current market expectations, Powell's speech tonight may present three different trends, each of which will have varying degrees of impact on the market.

Firstly, if Powell clearly states that interest rates will be cut in September, this will undoubtedly become a strong positive signal. In this case, the market is likely to experience a rebound, although this possibility is relatively low, with an expected probability of only about 20%.

Secondly, if Powell indicates that the current timing is not suitable for a rate cut, but his words reveal a tendency towards a possible rate cut in the future, this will also be seen as a positive signal by the market. The likelihood of this situation occurring is relatively high, with an expected probability of around 50%.

Finally, if Powell's speech does not mention any expectations for interest rate cuts at all, and even takes a firmer stance, the market may experience a certain degree of decline. The probability of this occurring is about 30%.

Considering the various possibilities mentioned above, it is recommended that investors maintain a wait-and-see attitude for the time being and make judgments after Powell's speech. Closely monitor market trends and analyze various information rationally in order to make wiser investment decisions.