Daily News | BTC Returned to Above $100K, SWARMS’s Market Cap Exceeded $500 Million, Setting A New Record High

Crypto Daily Digest: BTC ETFs had a single-day inflow of more than $700 million, and AI16Z’s market cap returned to $2 billion

According to Farside Investors data, yesterday the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a large net inflow of $769 million, of which Fidelity FBTC had a net inflow of $370 million and Ark ARKB had an inflow of $152 million. BlackRock IBIT data has not been updated yet.

Yesterday, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $4.6 million, of which Fidelity FETH had an inflow of $4.6 million. BlackRock ETHA data has not been updated yet.

The total market cap of AI tokens exceeded $54.4 billion, with SWARMS leading the gains

According to Gate.io market data, the total market cap of AI tokens exceeded $54.4 billion, and the overall increase in the sector in 24 hours reached 3.2%. Among them:

-After SWARMS hit a new record high, its market cap is now $488 million, with a 24-hour increase of 77.3%;

-SPORE’s market cap is now $44.75 million, up 42.6% in 24 hours;

-AI16Z’s market cap is now $2.498 billion, up 26.6% in 24 hours;

-ARC’s market cap is now $432 million, up 25.2% in the past 24 hours.

Viewpoint: The crypto market may be impacted by macro flows and reach a short-term high at the end of the first quarter

Arthur Hayes, a well-known KOL in the crypto community, explained in his latest long article why he believes the crypto market will peak in mid-March and then experience a severe correction by analyzing the US dollar liquidity environment in the first quarter of 2025 and its impact on the crypto market. As the balance of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repurchase facility (RRP) declines and funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA) are released, it is estimated that approximately $612 billion in liquidity will be injected in the first quarter, providing support for Bitcoin and other assets.

However, the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) will reduce liquidity by about $180 billion, and the debt ceiling issue may trigger a liquidity shift in the second quarter. The Treasury may pay government expenses through TGA until May-June, and then need to raise the debt ceiling, a move that will have a negative impact on liquidity. In addition, the peak tax season (such as mid-April) will further suppress market liquidity. Despite many macroeconomic variables, the impact of RRP and TGA fund flows on the market is relatively clear. In summary, the market is expected to reach a short-term high at the end of the first quarter, and then enter a period of adjustment.

Opinion: Altcoins will not see the same rise as in the last bull market, but will have a larger but more limited rotation

According to crypto analyst Miles Deutscher’s analysis on social platforms, the Alt season will never be the same as 2021, because the loose conditions in 2021 were an extreme anomaly, and the surge in the number of new launch projects also diluted the potential gains of Altcoins.

Therefore, what is expected in this bull market is that: instead of all Altcoins rising at the same time, there will be larger but more limited rotations (such as AI and Meme coins); liquidity will flow in gradually, rather than rising sharply like during the 2021 stimulus plan.

Strong ETF flows reduce the impact of Bitcoin (BTC) rally on liquidity flows (now more psychological than actual). The market will shift more towards traders’ market, as the strategy of “holding a lot of coins and waiting for a rise” will no longer be as effective as before.

Miles Deutscher advises investors to adjust their trading/investing style according to current market conditions.

Market Trends: SWARMS hit a new record high, AI Agent sector generally rebounded

Market Hotspots

AI Agent tokens rebounded sharply, SWARMS, AI16Z, ARC, GRIFFAIN and others surged; SWARMS broke through the market cap of $500 million, setting a new record, and the strong will always be strong;

Trump-concept tokens TRUMPCOIN and MAGA plummeted. The market hyped related tokens in advance before Trump was sworn in as the US President. This was just a hype. It will be difficult for these tokens to return to their historical highs.

Mainstream Coins

BTC returned to above $100,000 and once broke through $102,000 this morning. BTCD surged 0.5% to 56.2% on the day, and BTC ETF continued to receive large net inflows;

ETH followed the rise and returned to 3,700, still mainly following the market;

Altcoins mixed gains and losses, with the AI ​​Agent sector still the best performer.

Macro News: US stocks rose and fell, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold in January

The three major U.S. stock indices rose and fell, with the S&P 500 up 0.55% to 5,975.38 points, the Dow Jones down 0.06% to 42,706.56 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.24% to 19,864.98 points. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 4.62%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, was 4.28%.

The market generally expects that the Fed will choose to keep its policy unchanged at the January policy meeting. According to CME’s “Fed Watch”, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 93.1%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by March is 57.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 39.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 2.6%.